1.0    Overview

Retirement Estimator allows you to estimate, chart, and report future financial scenarios. Financial information is entered in three basic categories as income, investments, and expenses. Transfers can then be created between income, investments, and expenses. Each entry can have a growth rate, periodic schedule, taxes, and begin and end date. Monte Carlo simulation can then be used to model a range of possible financial outcomes and calculate the probability of a financially successful retirement. Two estimator configurations can be drawn together on one line graph to compare one plan against another, including an earlier version of your plan brought in from an exported data file.

Your data is your own! The data you enter in Retirement Estimator is stored and read by Retirement Estimator to and from your device only. Read the Privacy statement for further information.

2.0    The Money Tab

The “Money Tab” is used to enter financial information in the categories of Income, Investments, Expenses, and Transfers.

2.1    Changing the Background Color

The background color can be changed in the “Money” page. Swipe right or left to change the background color. To create a custom background color press and hold the background until a color wheel appears. Move the brightness slider and color wheel to change colors. Press Back and the change should take effect. The most recent five custom colors are saved and can be selected by swiping left or right.

2.2    Entering Income

Income is a payment received on a periodic schedule from any source.

Income Fields

2.3    Entering Investments

An investment is money that has positive or negative growth over time.

Investment Fields

2.4    Entering Expenses

An expense is money that is owed. Expenses can have a cost amount, a periodic cost schedule, a periodic percentage increase, a periodic fixed increase, and a begin and end date.

Expense Fields

Note: Money transferred to an expense can be used to transfer from the expense to an investment. A scenario where this can be helpful is when taking a fixed income from a 401K, IRA, etc. The expense can be increased by a percentage amount to simulate inflation. The expense can then be transferred to an investment like a savings account. This allows the simulation of income from a 401K, IRA, etc. that increases with an inflation rate.

2.5    Entering Transfers

A transfer is money that is distributed from income and investments to investments and expenses. When transferring to an expense, the amount transferred to an expense can also be transferred to an investment. Transfers are listed by priority, the top of the list is highest priority.

Transfer Fields

2.6    Resolving Transfer Scheduling Conflicts

In order for priority transfers to work, two or more transfers from the same source with overlapping transfer dates must have the same schedule, schedule Type, and overlapping dates. It is recommended that transfers and expenses all have the same schedule type of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Also, begin all transfers and expenses on the same day of the week for weekly, the same day of the month for monthly, the same day of the quarter for quarterly, or the same day of the year for yearly.

Enabling the Income or Expense option to Convert To Schedule can be used to easily convert a payment or expense amount to any other periodic schedule. To do so enable the Convert To Schedule option and then change the value for Every and/or change Day(s), Week(s), Month(s), Quarter(s), Year(s).

For example, if the income Paycheck transfers to a monthly Mortgage expense and also transfers to a yearly Property Tax expense then the Mortgage expense will have to be converted to a yearly expense or the Property Tax expense will have to be converted to a monthly expense. Furthermore, if the expenses are converted to monthly expenses and the Mortgage expense begins on the first day of a month then the Property Tax expense will also need to begin on the first day of a month. The months do not have to be the same. If converted to yearly and the Property Tax begins on Dec 15th then the Mortgage will also need to begin on Dec 15th. The years do not have to be the same.

The simplest method of trying to resolve transfer conflicts may be to first convert transfer expenses to the same schedule.

The Estimator Configuration Begin Date can fall on a different day of the week, month, quarter, or year than the transfers using a matching schedule. When that happens the first scheduled transfer moves forward to the next date that fits its schedule. This is reported as a Configuration Date Advisory — it does not block report generation, and is resolved on the Estimator Configuration screen rather than on individual transfers.

The app helps you avoid, find, and fix conflicts in several places:

To generate a report that follows your transfer priorities, resolve the listed conflicts — individually or with Auto-Fix All. To generate a report from the data exactly as entered, use Continue Anyway; the priority order will not be applied to any same-source transfers that have different schedules, and the report still generates. Configuration Date Advisories never block report generation.

2.7    Transfer and Data-Entry Advisories

As you enter data, the app shows optional notes that explain how your entries will behave. None of them block saving or report generation. Each note either explains the effect of an entry or offers a one-tap adjustment that you confirm with Save.

3.0    The Estimator Tab

3.1    Entering an Estimator Configuration

Any combination of Income, Investments, Expenses, and Transfers can be included in a line graph, a CSV report, or a Monte Carlo simulation. This combination is stored as an Estimator Configuration. Multiple Estimator Configurations can be created to narrow information presented in the line graph, CSV reports, and Monte Carlo simulations.

Estimator Configuration Fields

3.2    Setting Line Graph and CSV Report Output Options

On the Estimator Configuration page, press “CSV Report/Graphing Options” to show CSV report and line graph options. These settings also control which items are included in the Monte Carlo simulation.

3.3    Viewing the Line Graph

On the Estimator Configuration page, press “View Graph” to show a line graph.

3.4    Comparing Two Estimator Configurations

On the Estimator Configuration page, press “Compare Graphs” to draw this estimator configuration and one other on the same line graph. Use this to see two plans side by side — retiring at 62 against retiring at 67, a plan with a paid-off mortgage against one without, or your current plan against an earlier version of it that you imported. Any two estimator configurations can be compared.

The horizontal time axis runs from the earlier of the two begin dates to the later of the two end dates, so both estimator configurations are shown in full. An estimator configuration that begins later starts partway across the graph, at its own begin date, rather than at the left edge. When the two estimator configurations use different schedules, the finer of the two sets the spacing of the time axis; each estimator configuration keeps its own schedule for its calculations.

3.5    Monte Carlo Simulation

On the Estimator Configuration page, press “Monte Carlo Simulation” to run a simulation based on the parameters configured in Monte Carlo Settings. The simulation runs the financial calculation engine the number of times set in Monte Carlo Settings. Within each simulation run, investment return rates and expense inflation rates are varied at each calculation period by sampling randomly from a distribution centered on the rate entered for each item — the spread of that variation is controlled by the standard deviation parameters set in Monte Carlo Settings. Income growth rates are varied once per simulation run. Fixed dollar amounts, tax rates, transfer amounts, schedules, and dates are not varied — only the growth and inflation rates entered for each item are subject to variability. The result is a range of possible portfolio outcomes shown as percentile bands on a chart, along with a Probability of Success percentage.

The Chart

The chart vertical axis shows total investment portfolio value — the sum of all investment account balances — over time. The horizontal axis is time. Five percentile lines show the spread of results across all simulations:

The green shaded band between P75 and P25 shows the middle 50% of all simulated outcomes — the most likely range of results given the parameters set in Monte Carlo Settings.

The chart vertical axis is scaled to show the P75 line clearly. Pinch to zoom in or out on the chart. Zooming out reveals the full P90 line if it extends above the visible area.

Probability of Success

The Probability of Success percentage shown at the bottom of the screen indicates how many of the simulations produced a fully funded result from start to finish. The label is shown in green when 80% or more of simulations succeeded, orange when between 60% and 80%, and red when below 60%.

A simulation is counted as a failure if either of the following occurs at any point during the simulation:

  1. An expense has an unpaid balance — either a transfer feeding the expense fell short, or no transfer was set up to cover it at all. A standalone expense with no transfer pointing at it is unpaid every active period and will fail every iteration.
  2. The total investment portfolio balance reaches zero.

Touching the Chart

Tap or drag on the chart to open an information panel at the bottom of the screen showing details for the selected date:

Tap the panel to dismiss it.

No Investment Accounts

If the Estimator Configuration does not include any investment accounts, the simulation will not run. Add an investment account to enable Monte Carlo projections.

Press the ⓘ button in the top-right corner for a quick reference guide to reading the chart.

3.6    Generating/Viewing CSV Reports

CSV reports can be opened by a spread sheet application such as Excel, Numbers, etc. CSV reports contain transfer information that is not contained in the line graph.

On the Estimator Configuration page, press “Generate/View CSV Reports” to show the Generate/View CSV Report page.

CSV reports may be accessed from the iOS “Files” App. Open the “Files” App and choose the Retirement Estimator folder. You will see CSV report files and exported data files in this folder. Files can be moved from/to this iOS device and other devices using AirDrop, email, iTunes, etc. See tutorials for additional details.

3.7    How Currency Flows on the Same Date

When multiple events fall on the same date — a paycheck arriving, an investment compounding, an expense becoming due, two transfers from the same source firing — the engine processes them in a fixed order. Understanding that order helps you interpret report values.

For every date in the report, the engine performs these steps, in this order:

  1. Source values are brought up to date. The source item (Income, Investment, or Expense behind a transfer) has its running totals rolled forward to the current date. Income earned is accumulated, investment growth is applied at the current rate, expenses accumulate at their current cost. Any scheduled increases that should have taken effect by this date are applied first — a fixed-amount raise scheduled for today, a percentage rate change taking effect today, an inflation adjustment due today — so today's transfers see the post-increase values.
  2. Destination values are brought up to date. The destination item (Investment or Expense receiving a transfer) is rolled forward the same way before the transfer is applied to it.
  3. Transfers fire in priority order. Priority is the numeric priority field on each transfer. Lower priority number fires first — priority 1 fires before priority 2, which fires before priority 3, and so on. Each transfer reads its source's currently-available funds, computes its amount using the rules for its payment type and source type (see §2.5 for the cumulative-target vs. per-fire distinction), and moves the funds: subtracted from the source, added to the destination.
  4. Each transfer's effect is visible to the next transfer in the same period. If two transfers from the same source fire on the same date, the higher-priority transfer fires first and reduces the source's available funds; the next transfer sees the reduced source. This is the load-bearing reason for the same-source same-schedule constraint described in §2.6 — without it, the lower-priority transfer could fire first by accident of date arithmetic, breaking the priority order you intended.
  5. Destination values reflect the transfer immediately. A transfer to an investment increases that investment's balance right away. A subsequent transfer on the same day from that same investment can pull against the increased balance. A transfer to an expense pays down the expense's outstanding amount immediately; a subsequent transfer to the same expense on the same day sees the reduced outstanding amount.
  6. Same-day investment growth uses the post-transfer balance. When investment growth for the next period compounds, it compounds on the balance after the day's transfers, not before.
  7. A transfer is capped by what is actually available. If a transfer's computed amount exceeds the source's currently-available funds (because earlier same-day transfers have already drawn from it, or because the source simply does not have enough), the transfer is reduced to the available amount. The transfer never overdraws.

Worked example — fixed transfer + percent transfer from the same Income source.

Today is the 15th of the month. You have these items:

On the 15th, the engine:

  1. Brings Paycheck up to date — $5,000 of new income arrives.
  2. Fires “Pay Mortgage” first because it is priority 1. $1,500 leaves Paycheck and is applied to the Mortgage expense.
  3. Fires “Fund 401k” second. The amount is 10% of total income earned to date (cumulative-target semantics for an Income source — see §2.5) minus what has already been moved to the 401k. The Mortgage transfer does not change this calculation, because cumulative-target is based on total earned income, not on what remains in Paycheck after other transfers.

If you swap the priorities so “Fund 401k” fires first and “Pay Mortgage” fires second, the numbers come out exactly the same in this example. That is because the Mortgage transfer is fixed (always $1,500 regardless of order) and the 401k transfer's percent is computed from total earned income (independent of what is left in Paycheck at the moment it fires).

Worked example — two percent transfers from the same Investment source.

Today is the 1st of the year. You have these items:

On the 1st, the engine:

  1. Brings Brokerage up to date.
  2. Fires “Living Expenses Draw” first because it is priority 1. 10% of the current balance — $1,000 — leaves Brokerage. The balance is now $9,000.
  3. Fires “Charity Draw” second. 5% of the current balance — $450 — leaves Brokerage, because percent transfers from an Investment source are per-fire (see §2.5), not cumulative-target.

If you swap the priorities so “Charity Draw” fires first, you get different numbers: 5% of $10,000 = $500 to Charity, then 10% of $9,500 = $950 to Living Expenses. Same total drawn ($1,450 vs $1,450 in this 2-transfer case), but each individual draw is different, and over many years the compounding outcomes will diverge. This is why priority matters more for percent draws from investments than for percent draws from income or expense sources.

Common questions this section answers.

4.0    The Settings Tab

4.1    In-App Purchases

An In-App purchase is required for unrestricted creation of Income, Investments, Expenses, Transfers, and Estimator Configurations.

An In-App purchase is required to generate CSV reports.

An In-App purchase is required to import/export data. Importing a data file may also require the In-App purchase for unrestricted creation of Income, Investments, Expenses, Transfers, and Estimator Configurations.

If the App is deleted and reinstalled, then In-App purchases can be restored and do not require repurchasing.

4.2    Enabling App Authentication

If you prefer authentication to access the App, select “Authentication” and then “Enable Password”. Enter and verify a password in the alert. If the iOS device supports biometric authentication, enable biometric access by enabling Touch ID or Face ID.

If Authentication is enabled, the Retirement Estimator App view will be blurred when entering background mode. If the App is in background mode for more than fifteen minutes, App authentication will be required again to access the App.

If the password is required to access the Retirement Estimator App and the password is unknown, the Retirement Estimator App will have to be deleted and reinstalled to use it again. All data will be lost if the Retirement Estimator App is deleted.

4.3    Importing/Exporting Data

App data you entered can be exported for backup or transferred to another iOS device and then imported. See the tutorials for additional details.

Compare Import

Compare brings in an exported data file and keeps it separate from the data already on this device, so you can graph an earlier version of your plan against your current one. Export a data file whenever you want a record of your plan, then months or years later import that file with Compare to see how the plan has changed.

An Income, Investment, Expense, or Transfer added after a Compare import belongs to neither copy, so it appears in every estimator configuration until you switch it off in the ones where you do not want it. Set this on the Line Graph and CSV Report output options page (Section 3.2).

Plan Files

A plan file (ending in “.financialplan”) contains a whole plan: its Income, Investments, Expenses, Transfers, and Estimator Configurations.

Data files may be accessed from the iOS “Files” App. Open the “Files” App and choose the Retirement Estimator folder. You will see exported data files, plan files you placed there, and CSV report files in this folder. Files can be moved from/to this iOS device and other devices using AirDrop, email, iTunes, etc. See tutorials for additional details.

4.4    Monte Carlo Settings

In the Settings tab, press “Monte Carlo Settings” to configure the parameters used by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Press “Reset to Defaults” to restore all four settings to their default values.

4.5    Delete All Data

Press “Delete All Data” to delete all Income, Investments, Expenses, Transfers, and Estimator Configurations. CSV report files and exported data files will not be deleted.

4.6    Shortcuts Actions

Retirement Estimator adds two actions to the Shortcuts App. They can be used in your own shortcuts, and on a Mac they can be run from the Terminal with the shortcuts run command.

If authentication is enabled (Section 4.2), the actions run only while Retirement Estimator is unlocked. Retirement Estimator sends nothing anywhere; the text an action returns goes only to the shortcut or app that ran it.